Яцко Вячеслав Александрович

The Root Causes of the Russo-Ukrainian War Conflict

О чем шумите вы, народные витии?

Зачем анафемой грозите вы России?

Что возмутило вас? волнения Литвы?

Оставьте: это спор славян между собою,

Домашний, старый спор, уж взвешенный судьбою,

Вопрос, которого не разрешите вы.

А.С.Пушкин, 1831 г.

I decided to write this essay to explain to the reader the root causes of the ongoing war conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

I addressed the Ukrainian problems earlier in several articles. In 2007, I substantiated the necessity to integrate eastern and southern regions of Ukraine into Russia (http://samlib.ru/j/jacko_w_a/ukra.shtml); In 2019, I projected that the recently elected president Zelensky , who completely supported the ideas of radical nationalists, would give the order to wage war against Donbass and Russia thus becoming the last president of Ukraine (http://samlib.ru/j/jacko_w_a/prez.shtml); In 2020, I forecasted the collapse of Ukrainian sovereignty (http://samlib.ru/j/jacko_w_a/ukr.shtml).

Since January 2019 (the beginning of the presidential election campaign in Ukraine) and till the end of February 2022 (TV channels were closed) I had been watching Ukrainian TV channels every day, several times a day. For that, I had to learn Ukrainian because all TV broadcasts were in Ukrainian. I doubt if there was an expert in the world who was so deeply immersed in Ukrainian affairs as I was.

The hostilities that Russia opened in February 2022 were no surprise for me as well as for many other experts and pundits. The so-called special operation should have begun much earlier, the most appropriate moment being May 2014 when more than 40 people were burned alive in Odessa by the Ukrainian nazists. That was the most appropriate moment for Russia to intervene and occupy the whole Ukraine without any losses. The former acting president Tourchinov admitted that at that time the Ukrainian army numbered only 5,000 combat-ready soldiers. President Putin missed that unique opportunity to start the military operation 8 years later when the Ukrainian army had become much stronger, better equipped, and ideologically motivated. Now, as the third year of the war is coming to an end total death toll of Russian and Ukrainian forces is estimated to be about four hundred thousand or even more, and all efforts to stop the war have been in vain. President Trump first pledged to end the war in one day as soon as he comes to power, then promised to do it in 100 days, and then - in 6 months.

Apparently, to effectively end the war one must be aware of its root causes, that, as I think, haven't been revealed yet. Anyone will fail in his efforts to stop the war unless he clearly sees its root causes.

According to Putin the main causes of the war were the intention to defend the people of Donbass and to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Once the country is a member of NATO American military bases will be deployed on the border of Kursk region and it will take about 10 minutes for NATO missiles to reach Moscow. Ukrainian representatives and their western bosses claim that the cause of the war is irrational imperialistic attitude of Putin toward Ukraine. The latter assertion seems absurd, while the former is incomplete and superficial. Both explanations oversimplify the situation. If the Ukrainian point of view is adopted, then to resolve all problems it would be necessary to eliminate Putin. Biden's administration, as it recently turned out, planned to assassinate him seemingly having upheld that primitive idea.

I personally think that the root causes of the war lie in the laws of the historic development of Russia and in the psychology and culture of the Russian people.

Putin declared several times that Russians and Ukrainians are one nation comparing the conflict between them to the civil war. I think, in general, this statement is true, but needs a clarification. Russians and Ukrainians are culturally closely related. The Ukrainian language has the same grammar as Russian, the difference between the two languages being mostly lexical. It took me about three months to learn Ukrainian so as to be able to understand conversations on TV shows and programs. Many families living in Russia have Ukrainian roots and relatives in Ukraine. Many families living in Ukraine have relatives in Russia. For example, Podolyak, one of the main Zelensky's counselors, a radical nationalist and nazist, had a brother who lived in Russia and served as a secret service agent. Relatives of Syrsky, current commander-in-chief of Ukrainian armed forces, live in Russia and support the military operation. And so on and so forth. My mother was Ukrainian by origin though she never spoke Ukrainian as her family moved to Russia when she was little. My mother's numerous relatives live in Ukraine.

Apart from the cultural relationships there are biological, genetical relationships. If we take the most recent studies, we will see that the nation that is most closely related to Russians genetically is the Polish people. Haplogroup R1a, that is specific for Slavic nations, is distributed in the following way. It can be found among 57% of the Polish people, and 55%, 51%, and 44% of Russians, Belorussians, and Ukrainians respectively. Actually, these four peoples form one and the same nation, that I call The Great Slavic Nation (GSN).

Let's consider some historic events that reflect the interaction between these peoples. (See my works at https://www.litres.ru/book/vyacheslav-yacko/sobytiya-istorii-rossii-drevnerusskoe-gosudarstvo-67068549 and https://www.litres.ru/book/vyacheslav-yacko/sobytiya-istorii-rossii-russkoe-gosudarstvo-67107564)

Russian state was formed in the 9th century with the capital first in Novgorod then in Kiev while the first Polish state appeared in the 10th century. At the end of that century Vladimir The Great, the Grand Prince of Kiev attacked the duchy of Poland to seize Galicia and integrate it into Russian lands. At the beginning of the next century Bolesław I the Brave, the duke (later king) of Poland, invaded Russia and seized Kiev, its capital. Later, in several months, he had to leave it. Interestingly, the chronologists wrote that at that time Russians and Poles communicated without difficulty, there being minor differences between their languages. The subsequent interaction between the two nations is a row of wars and war conflicts (about 20 of them) that lasted till the end of the 18th century when the major part of Poland was absorbed by the Russian empire. After its collapse in 1917, Poland gained independence and immediately invaded Ukraine in an attempt to create Great Poland, a state that would stretch from sea to shining sea, that is from the Baltic to the Black sea. Those foolish dreams had never come true because the army of Soviet Russia defeated polish troops in Ukraine and chased them down to Warsaw where in the decisive battle the Red Army suffered a catastrophic defeat with about 200,000 of soldiers captured as war prisoners. Almost half of them died of starvation, were murdered, tortured, and executed by the Polish nationalists. Stalin participated in that war, he was well aware of the atrocities committed by the Polish nationalists and retaliated taking advantage of the first opportunity in 1940 when more than 20,000 polish officers were shot to death.

After the Second World War Poland was integrated into the camp of socialist states to become completely (politically and economically) dependent on Russia. The 40 year cold war period was the happiest time in the relations between the two nations. Economic and cultural ties flourished, Poles became the best friends of Russians, all dark pages in their history being forgotten. I remember that time when Barbara Brylska starred in the famous Soviet comedy movie, Anna German became one of the most popular pop singers in Russia, and I had an opportunity to watch with great interest polish series such as <i>The Four Tankmen and a Dog</i>, and <i>Stakes Larger Than Life</i>. After the collapse of the Soviet Union all ties between the two countries were terminated, and Poland reversed to the traditional anti-Russian course to join NATO and to become Russia's worst enemy.

The history of relations between Russia and Ukraine is much shorter. Right after the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, Ukrainian Peoples Republic was founded that in 1918 proclaimed its independence. The first thing that its government did was to open hostilities against Soviet Russia and its supporters in Ukraine. The hostilities were stopped after the beginning of the civil war when the White Army occupied most of the Ukraine. After the communist Red army victory, in 1922, Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic became one of the founders of the Soviet Union. And in 1991 its leadership contributed to the disintegration of the Soviet Union signing Belovezha Accords that proclaimed independence of the former republics that constituted the USSR.

The next years beginning from 1992 up to nowadays can be divided into four periods characterized by the gradual worsening of the relations between the two countries and the increase of anti-Russian attitudes that were encouraged, facilitated, and financed by the numerous American organizations.

During the first period, Ukrainian leaders represented their country as "NON RUSSIA". In 2003, President Kuchma published his book entitled "Ukraine is not Russia". The book was full of falsehoods, one of them being the assertion that Russian Republic as a part of the USSR lived at the expense of Ukraine. In 1981, our student group went on an excursion from Moscow to Kiev. When our train was approaching Kiev, I was stunned to see luxurious two-storied cottages in the suburbs of the Ukrainian capital. In my native city, a regional center in Siberia, residents lived in small one-room, two-room huts at that time. My parents' three-room house was one of the biggest in the city. And there, near Kiev, I saw for the first time in my life two-storied buildings made of bricks, an unimaginable luxury for me. It is common knowledge that all of the republics in the USSR lived at the expense of Russians, and living standards in Russian Republic were much lower than in Ukraine and Baltic Republics. In 2023, Kuchma suddenly confessed that he had written lies in his book. I don't know why he did so.

The next phase in the Russian-Ukrainian relations opened in 2005 when Yushenko, who represented interests of radical nationalists, came to power. At that stage, the slogan "Ukraine is not Russia" turned into "Ukraine is anti-Russia". Russia was officially declared to be the enemy, Ukrainian nazists such as Bandera and Shukhevich were glorified as heroes as well as the members of the SS Galytchyna division who fought on Hitler's side against the Soviet army. Ukrainian Government officially announced its plans to join NATO and EU.

In 2014, when radical nationalists and nazists ousted president Yanukovich, began a pre-war period. Russia took back Crimea, and war conflict in Donbass started that lasted till the beginning of the large scale war in February 2022. The war period (the fourth one) is still going on, and it's not clear when it ends.

Relations between Russia and Belorussia seem to have been much better at first sight, but in fact, they repeated the first two stages and were on the brink of proceeding to the third one. By 2010 president Lukashenko semi-officially adopted the so-called lithuanism (литвинство) as a state ideology according to which Belorussians are considered to be of Lithuanian rather than Slavic origin, and that was a clear distinction of "Belorussia is not Russia" phase. By 2020, the events developed into "Belorussia is anti-Russia" stage. Representatives of Polish and Lithuanian nobility who waged wars against Russia were glorified and radical nationalists movements were supported and encouraged. Tensions between the two countries reached the highest point in July 2020 when Lukashenko ordered to arrest in Minsk 33 officers from Vagner private military company. Russia and Belorussia were on the brink of a war conflict. The worst scenario was avoided thanks to the efforts undertaken by Tikhanouskaya, an American agent of influence, who in August 2020 organized mass protests and attempted to oust Lukashenko. The crisis sobered up the Belorussian leader who rejected nationalist ideology and returned to the Russian sphere of influence. Currently the situation in Belorussia seems to be controlled, but, nevertheless, this country even as a semi-independent state presents threat to Russia. It must be fully integrated into Russia as soon as possible.

I have provided facts that reveal the law of the social development that can be formulated as follows.

As soon as a people separates itself from the Great Slavic Nation it immediately adopts anti-Russian policies and, after passing the stages described above, comes into a war conflict with Russia. The result of the conflict is always one and the same: Russia absorbs and integrates that people

I call this law the YH-Law. Y is the initial letter in my last name, and H stands for history.

Basing on this law we can come to the following conclusions.

1. The idea of ceasefire and conflict frozen on the existing frontline is pointless. It will be a short uneasy truce that both sides will use to strengthen their armed forces, and the war will start again in a month or so only to be more violent and fierce. The so-called Korean variant is inappropriate at all for this situation.

2. Putin's demand that Ukraine should withdraw from Russia-claimed areas, abandon intentions to join NATO, become a neutral country, and guarantee rights to Russian-speakers is unrealistic. If Zelensky orders troops to withdraw from those areas he will be immediately killed by radical nationalists. Suppose a miracle occurs, his order to withdraw is fulfilled, Russia gains those regions. What comes next? Russia will have a neighbor with strong industry and army equipped with the newest western weaponry and people with strong anti-Russian attitudes and ideology. Zelensky already told that if Ukraine loses a part of its territory it will continue to attack Russia no matter what agreement has been reached. Those attacks will quickly convert to a full scale violent war.

3. The only way to stop the war is to let Russia absorb the whole of Ukraine. This country and its people have to be a part of the Great Slavic Nation again. The reunification is inevitable, it is the objective law of historic development.

4. Some highly ranked officials from NATO countries spread rumors that once Russia annexes Ukraine it will invade the other European countries. These rumors are false. The only European country that Russia will want to absorb is Poland. Russia doesn't present any threat to the other European countries.

Here is my advice to Trump and his administration. Forget Ukraine, leave it alone. The problem is too complex, you are in way over your head here, you haven't the belly for it. Forget about Poland, withdraw your troops, let it return to the Russian orbit to live in peace and friendship. Once this happens, Russia will cease all military efforts. We are not going to invade any other countries. We, the Great Slavic Nation, don't present any threat to anyone when united.

Viatcheslav Yatsko

January 30, 2025

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Яцко Вячеслав Александрович The Root Causes of the Russo-Ukrainian War Conflict